Dear Friends,

The U.S.-China trade war isn’t over—it’s just on pause.

This 90-day truce dramatically lowered tariffs on both sides, but it didn’t solve any of the underlying issues. In fact, it may have made things worse by adding even more uncertainty to an already volatile economic environment.

Here’s what’s really happening:

✔️ First, no one is resolving the hard stuff.
Trade agreements aren’t a matter of lowering a few numbers. They require negotiating sector by sector, industry by industry. The idea that this will all get worked out in 90 days—while the U.S. is also managing trade disputes with nearly every other country—is, frankly, unrealistic.

✔️ Second, uncertainty is the biggest economic drag—and this deal didn’t fix that.
If you’re a business owner, how do you make investment or hiring decisions when you have no idea what the rules will be in three months? Even if tariffs stay lower temporarily, companies will hold off on big capital investments like building factories or expanding supply chains. And that hits everyday Americans directly.

If you’re a construction worker waiting for new projects, or a logistics worker expecting more volume through U.S. ports, the jobs and opportunities you were counting on may not appear—simply because businesses don’t have the clarity they need to act.

✔️ Third, the U.S. is fighting everyone, and China isn’t.
China is using this moment to strengthen its trade relationships around the world. If it can’t sell to the U.S., it’s shifting exports elsewhere. The U.S., on the other hand, is locked in trade disputes with multiple countries. There’s nowhere else for us to turn. That’s not just bad strategy—it’s bad leadership.

So, what should people do in the face of all this uncertainty?

• If you run a business, think of the next 90 days as an insurance window. Build inventory now while tariffs are lower. Yes, you might overpay if tariffs drop further later, but that’s the cost of hedging against even higher prices or shortages down the road.

• If you’re an everyday American, prepare like you’re about to hit tough times. You probably won’t lose your job—but you should act like you might. Pay down debt. Build up savings. Create a cushion. When uncertainty is this high, financial flexibility is the best defense.

Because here’s the truth no one wants to say out loud: Even if this deal leads to a settlement, it will likely be one that favors China. And if it doesn’t? Get ready for this cycle of economic whiplash to start all over again.

– Gautam

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