Dear Friends,

I’m not Catholic, but when I think about the church’s nearly 2,000 years of continuity, I feel something close to awe. Measured by length and impact, no other leadership role compares to the papacy. And while the Pope is a unique figure, the papacy is still a leadership position—subject to the same forces, theories, and succession challenges we see in every major institution.

With the election of Leo XIV, many observers believe we’re witnessing a transition built on continuity rather than change. But history—and leadership theory—suggest otherwise.

In my books Indispensable and Picking Presidents, I explored a question that’s as old as leadership itself: Do leaders really matter?

My research shows that they do—but mostly in very specific circumstances. In large, powerful organizations like the Catholic Church, leadership selection is typically a highly filtered process. Candidates are evaluated over decades, and only those who fit the institutional mold survive. These leaders tend to perform well, but rarely leave a unique mark. Think of the last few CEOs of Goldman Sachs or McKinsey—competent, but largely interchangeable.

But sometimes, an “unfiltered” leader slips through. They haven’t spent years being vetted or molded by the system. They come to power through unusual circumstances—deadlock, succession crises, or personal sponsorship from a powerful predecessor. These leaders are far more likely to make bold, history-shaping decisions. They’re also far more likely to fail spectacularly. In short, they’re high variance.

By the standards of the modern Catholic Church, Leo XIV is as unfiltered a leader as we’ve seen.

• He wasn’t considered a frontrunner going into the conclave.

• He became a cardinal only in 2023—giving his peers little time to evaluate him in the church’s highest circles.

• And most of the cardinals voting for him were new to the role themselves—named by Pope Francis and participating in their first conclave.

This wasn’t an accident. Francis clearly shaped the outcome of this transition. He appointed the cardinals who would vote, regularly met with and promoted Prevost (now Leo XIV), and positioned him at the center of Church leadership through his role leading the Dicastery for Bishops.

What does this mean for the Church—and for leadership more broadly?

If history is any guide, Leo XIV will leave a significant personal mark on the Church, regardless of predictions that he’ll be a figure of continuity. His leadership may uphold Francis’s vision—but he will almost certainly put his own, unexpected stamp on it.

And for leaders in any field—whether you’re running a business, a nonprofit, or a public institution—there’s a clear lesson here: If you want to shape the future, you must shape the process for choosing who comes next.

You may not have a conclave or cardinals, but you do have the power to mentor successors, design leadership pipelines, and influence how your organization thinks about its next generation of leaders. Like Francis, if you shape those decisions today, your legacy may endure long after you leave the corner office.

– Gautam

Why Robotaxis Could Turn Tesla into the Next Boeing

Thanks for reading. If you liked this newsletter, please subscribe here!

My book, Picking Presidents, is available on Amazon. Get your copy here.

Follow me on Twitter and LinkedIn for daily updates.