Dear Friends,

President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is now law. That name may be fitting — but not for the reasons its supporters imagine. It is big. But from the perspective of American innovation, it is anything but beautiful.

The bill cuts taxes by trillions, primarily for the wealthiest Americans. It slashes more than $1 trillion from Medicaid and safety net programs. It raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and pours $150 billion into immigration enforcement. These are headline-grabbing numbers. But beneath them lies a quieter, and potentially more devastating, story: this bill is a declaration of war on American science and innovation.

Let’s start with the budget. The Congressional Budget Office projects the bill will add nearly $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade — some estimates are even higher. Deficits are, in essence, taxes on the next generation. That can be a good investment — if the money is spent on things that increase future prosperity. Historically, America’s best such investment has been scientific research. According to the Federal Reserve, federal science spending delivers a 150% to 300% return. Since World War II, it has accounted for a quarter of productivity growth in the private sector.

Instead of doubling down on this proven engine of prosperity, the bill pulls the plug.

It slashes the National Science Foundation’s budget by 56%, cutting fellowships for graduate students and postdocs by 73%. The National Institutes of Health faces an $18 billion cut. Even if these are eventually reversed, the damage will echo for decades. Science isn’t just about labs and data — it’s about people. When you defund training, you lose a generation of scientists. Their discoveries, cures, and innovations disappear with them.

And that’s only the beginning.

The bill imposes new taxes on university endowments, penalizing the very institutions that anchor the U.S. research ecosystem. It phases out tax credits for wind and solar — clean energy sources that are already cheaper than fossil fuels and are critical to powering AI and other energy-intensive technologies. It kneecaps subsidies for battery production — a foundational technology for both civilian and defense industries.

Then there are the indirect effects. By massively increasing the debt, the bill will likely push interest rates higher. That’s bad news for everyone, but especially for deep-tech startups — the very companies working on breakthrough technologies with long development timelines. Higher interest rates mean lower valuations and less investment. Compound interest may be the most powerful force in finance — but compound discounting is just as ruthless in reverse.

All of this amounts to a single, stark truth: this bill takes America’s innovation advantage — painstakingly built over a century — and trades it away.

The U.S. didn’t become the world’s technological leader by accident. It did so because of deliberate, long-term investments in talent, research, and infrastructure. It happened because we bet on the future — even when it was uncertain. This bill does the opposite. It mortgages the future to pay for the present.

History will not remember it kindly. And we may find that undoing its damage is much harder than passing it ever was.

Let’s not confuse scale with greatness. Some bills have big returns. This bill is a big disaster for America’s competitiveness, national security and economic future.

—Gautam

Equities Fall Amid Trump's Tariff Salvo

If you’ve enjoyed reading, please subscribe to The Indispensable Newsletter to have relevant content sent straight to your inbox twice a week!

Further Reading….

If you like this kind of deep dive on leadership and innovation, I’ve got some more suggestions. Here are some books you’ll love.