Think the Crisis Is Over? Think Again—It's Evolving.

Dear Friends,

Markets panicked when Trump escalated his tariff war. Then he announced a 90-day pause—and suddenly, everything seemed fine again. Stocks bounced back. Bond yields settled. Crisis averted… right?

Not even close.

In Bloomberg Opinion last week, I wrote about one of the biggest mistakes leaders make in a crisis—assuming the world is still operating by the old rules. It’s not. Crises aren’t just about the initial shock. They’re about the ripple effects that come after—when assumptions start falling like dominoes.

Remember 2008? The meltdown didn’t happen just because housing prices dropped. It happened because everyone believed housing was safe—and when that belief collapsed, everything else followed: banks, money markets, credit. The result? Full-blown financial meltdown.

Now we’re flirting with that again. Trump’s tariff blitz wasn’t just about trade. It broke a much deeper assumption: that the U.S. government is reliable. And that has markets—and global systems that rely on the U.S.—quietly freaking out.

Here’s the real danger: leaders who think only one thing has changed. In a real crisis, everything changes. The best leaders—Lincoln, Shackleton, the CEO of Wachovia in 2008—knew how to throw out the old playbook and adapt fast. That’s what makes the difference between disaster and survival.

So ask yourself: What systems are you trusting that might not survive the next shock? Are you flexible enough to throw out your playbook when it matters most?

More to come.

–Gautam

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