The Indispensable Newsletter #10

Hey there!

It’s great to be back for another edition of The Indispensable Newsletter. The last month has been quite a decade, and I’m excited to first share a bit about what I’ve been up to.

Since my last newsletter, I’ve lectured at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and the Yale School of Management, hosted The World Reimagined Podcast, and guest hosted Greater Boston, WGBH’s flagship news program. I’ve also been busy writing about everything from Boeing to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Elon Musk, updating my new website, and, of course, walking (and spoiling) pups Plato and Zorro. 

This week’s newsletter dives deep into this historic moment for America and the Democratic party. I'll break down what Democrats (and voters at large) need to know about Kamala Harris’s potential as president, drawing insights from my research on leadership. Plus, I'll share my recent media appearances, including a fascinating discussion on the Background Briefing podcast and an analysis on Bloomberg Surveillance. 

Let’s get started, and remember to send this newsletter along to a friend! I’d love to have them join the Indispensable family.

Deep Dive: What Democrats Should Know About Their New Nominee

Now that President Biden has announced he will not be seeking reelection and has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party has its nominee for the 2024 presidential election. While much attention is focused on her ability to defeat Trump, remember that governing ability is equally important: voters won't choose someone they think can't lead the country effectively. 

How can we assess whether Harris will make a good president, not just a good candidate? Choosing the most powerful person in the world is the ultimate problem in leader selection, a topic I’ve spent much of my career studying. My latest book, Picking Presidents: How to Make the Most Consequential Decision in the World, centers on exactly this question. 

So what do Democrats—and voters—need to know? 

There are two types of leaders: Filtered and unfiltered. Filtered leaders are system products that have risen through the ranks over time while being fully evaluated by party elites. They are usually capable—but rarely exceptionally good or exceptionally bad—because the system homogenizes candidates by pushing out those who are different. Biden, for example, is the most filtered president ever, with 44 years in senior political office before he became president. 

Unfiltered leaders have not been fully evaluated by the system. They are often outsiders with little national political experience. They, like Abraham Lincoln and his disastrous successor Andrew Johnson, tend to make choices that would be unimaginable for more seasoned candidates. That means they are usually great or awful (usually the latter). Trump, with zero days in government before becoming president, was the most unfiltered president ever. 

Kamala Harris falls squarely in the filtered category. She has a wealth of political experience: She’s been a senator, Attorney General of California, and now Vice President of the United States. Her filtration score—how evaluated she is by the system—is 24, which puts her between Ronald Reagan and Andrew Jackson. That means she is vastly more qualified for the presidency than major historical figures like Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush, Franklin Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, Grover Cleveland, Abraham Lincoln, and Woodrow Wilson.

Harris’s experience is a strong indicator of her ability to govern effectively. To further assess her potential as president, we should consider a few key factors:

First, observe how political elites reacted to her nomination. The speed and coherence with which endorsements came in for Harris after Biden's announcement is significant. Within 24 hours, she secured endorsements from every plausible contender for the nomination, including those who had incentives to wait and see. This overwhelming support from those who know her best and understand the presidency is a strong signal.

The list of endorsements is impressive: President Biden, former President Clinton, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar; two-term governors like Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky's Andy Beshear, and North Carolina's Roy Cooper; senators like Cory Booker; and governors-turned-cabinet secretaries like Gina Raimondo. 

Broad support also matters. Filtered presidents succeed when they represent the whole party and fail when they are chosen by a single interest group. For example, James Buchanan, the most filtered president until Biden, led America into the Civil War because he was elected by slaveholders and served only their interests. The diverse coalition backing Harris suggests she has broad appeal within the Democratic Party.

When you’re talking about the presidency, though, perhaps the most important variable is character. That’s not a purely scientific judgment, and I am a social scientist, after all. But the President of the United States really is the most powerful person in the world. And power changes most (but not all) people for the worse. Harris's long career in public service provides ample opportunity to assess her character and integrity—and at least in my judgment (and perhaps more importantly, the judgment of the Democratic Party leaders who know her best)—she passes that test with flying colors. 

Harris's candidacy is historic in many ways—she would be the first Black and first Indian-American woman to become President of the United States. As an Indian-American myself, I’m quite proud of the prospect that one of us might ascend to the White House! But it's equally important to recognize that in terms of experience and qualifications, she represents a return to normalcy in American politics. 

I recently wrote about a friend of mine who ran for president in 2020. As a leadership expert, I offered him my take on a campaign slogan:

“If you elect me, you will not have to read the newspaper every day, and your kids will not need to know my name.”

Years later, I’d say something similar to Kamala Harris. Because here’s the truth of it: Most Americans do not want chaos. They’ve had enough of it. 

If I were Kamala Harris, I'd say this: “If I become president, you will not need to read the newspaper every day. You’ll be just fine.”

Raise your hand if that gives you a sigh of relief. 

(✋)

In the Media

I joined Ian Masters on his Background Briefing podcast to talk about the historical significance of this moment, the role of party elites in the presidential selection process, and just who Kamala Harris might pick as her running mate. You can listen to the whole episode here. 

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